Is There a Housing Bubble Coming?

What if you were told there was a Housing Bubble coming would you think it could be caused by a black swan event?

In this episode, I’m going to show you some of the most common ways that black swan events can disrupt and ruin your life. We’re all familiar with the phrase “black swan theory”, which was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan. It refers to an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has a major impact on its surroundings – often shocking those who were not expecting it. But what are they? And how do you get ready for them? Let me break down some things you should know about black swans before they happen to you!

Home Sales Rose for the Second Straight Month:

  • Home sales rose for the second straight month but were barely higher than in July 2020.
  • The inventory of homes at the end of July stood at 1.32 million, down 12% from a year ago, but that is a smaller annual decline than in recent months.
  • The median price of an existing home sold in July was $359,900. That is a 17.8% increase compared with July 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/23/home-sales-rose-in-july-as-demand-outpaced-slightly-stronger-supply.html

Housing Market Black Swan Event Bubbling:

  • Record low-interest rates, historically tight inventories, and the COVID-19 pandemic pulling forward the flight from city centers to the suburbs have sparked an unprecedented rise in U.S. home prices.
  • Home prices soared by a record 16.6% year over year in May, according to the national Case-Shiller index, and are now 38.1% above their 2006 peak.
  • Home prices soared by a record 16.6% year over year in May, according to the national Case-Shiller index, and are now 38.1% above their 2006 peak.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-black-swan

Share of Mortgages in Forbearance:

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 3.26% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.25% as of August 15, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.

https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-325-percent